Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Fair
- Risk
- High
- Technicals (daily)
- Bearish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Aptos
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 1
- Far below ATH, fundamentals growingImportant
−96.6% from the all-time high, but TVL/fees are rising.
Risks 0
No notable risks right now.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 5 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
- Near the 52-week lowRelevant
Price in the bottom tenth of its yearly range – a floor or more selling?
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Oct 22, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)39neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position7%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)9.3%typical daily move ±9.3%
- Mayer Multiple0.93in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple low for Bitcoin: no clear edge (16 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−97%high on Jan 26, 2023
- Max. drawdown 1 year−85%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−1.43worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.50 / 0.60swings more than Bitcoin
- Volume trend+28%trading is increasing
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- Fee growth 30 d+28.5%90 · 43 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)100%89 · 21 %
- TVL size$42.52M29 · 21 %
- Fee volume 30 d$137.11K14 · 14 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
42% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bearish (36/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Aptos · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
APTUSDT
About Aptos
Aptos is a new, independent high-performance PoS Layer 1 project focused on delivering the safest and most scalable Layer 1 blockchain in the world. The Aptos blockchain leverages the Move programming language and the Move VM for application development, which are created and optimized for blockchain use cases.The team is comprised of the original creators, researchers, designers, and builders of Diem, the blockchain that was first built to serve this purpose. Aptos raised $200m from a16z, Multicoin, Binance and others. Aptos launched Devnet in mid March, incentivized testnet in late May and targets Q3 for mainnet launch.