Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Undervalued
- Risk
- High
- Technicals (daily)
- Neutral
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Arbitrum
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 0
No notable opportunities right now.
Risks 1
- Fees collapsingRelevant
−82.1% vs. the previous month.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 43 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Sep 14, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)42neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position12%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)8.6%typical daily move ±8.6%
- Mayer Multiple1.38in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple high for Bitcoin: too few signals (4 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−93%high on Jan 12, 2024
- Max. drawdown 1 year−77%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−0.25worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.67 / 0.47swings more than Bitcoin
- Volume trend−24%trading is decreasing
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- Fee growth 30 d−82.1%3 · 43 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)95.3%69 · 21 %
- TVL size$1.51B78 · 21 %
- Fee volume 30 d$806.96K43 · 14 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
69% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Neutral (56/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Arbitrum · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
ARBUSDT
About Arbitrum
Arbitrum is one of the leading Ethereum scaling solutions bringing cheap transactions to tens of thousands of users in an environment that feels very similar to Ethereum. It is an optimistic rollup and the leading L2 in terms of TVL. Some of the largest dApps live on Arbitrum include GMX, Radiant, Uniswap V3, and Gains Network.
Price target check for Arbitrum
What would Arbitrum need for these prices? With market cap needed, comparison and history.