Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Overvalued
- Risk
- Very high
- Technicals (daily)
- Bullish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Cap
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 3
- Market value below TVLRelevant
MCap/TVL 0.76 – common for lending/staking, otherwise a sign of a low valuation.
- Stronger than BitcoinRelevant
+91.1% better than BTC over 30 days, trend intact.
- Intact uptrendRelevant
Price above SMA50, above SMA200.
Risks 5
- Dilution riskImportant
FDV = 6.4× MCap – only 16% of the supply is circulating. Future token unlocks weigh on the price.
- Capital flowing outRelevant
TVL −30.0% in 30 days.
- Short price historyRelevant
The all-time high and all-time low both fall within the last 6 months – there is little experience of how the price behaves over longer periods.
- Very high volatilityRelevant
302% annualised (7 d).
- Parabolic riseRelevant
+86.3% in 30 days, close to the all-time high – risk of a pullback.
Notes
- Lots of new capital in perpsRelevant
OI +158% in 30 d – the trend is leveraged, liquidation risk is rising.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- RSI (14 days)62neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDpositiveshort-term momentum stronger than recently
- Bollinger position84%upper half of the band
- ATR (14 days)6.6%typical daily move ±6.6%
- Distance to all-time high−18%high on Oct 12, 2026
- Max. drawdown 1 year−46%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year3.00good (1 or more)
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin-0.87 / -0.16swings less than Bitcoin
- Volume trend−15%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL growth 30 d−30.0%9 · 30 %
- Fee growth 30 d−4.9%40 · 30 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)0.1%10 · 15 %
- TVL size$204.28M49 · 15 %
- Fee volume 30 d$467.35K38 · 10 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
- Bitcoin price analysis sees ‘strong rally’ as old coins become dormantCointelegraph ·
- Japan's top yen stablecoin falls short of its target in a disappointing first yearCoinDesk ·
- Canada’s Draft Stablecoin Rules Cap Redemption Fees at 1% and Ban YieldDecrypt ·
- Securitize’s tokenized stock value halves as Circle widens leadCointelegraph ·
Key figures
Market
Supply
16% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Uptrend · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bullish (77/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
cap · Lending · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
CAPUSDT
About Cap
Cap is a covered credit application consisting of a digital dollar, a credit platform, and a financial guarantee market to underwrite individual loans. The digital dollar is backed by dollar assets, such as regulated money market funds and payment stablecoins. These reserve assets are lent to institutions via credit to generate yield for depositors. All borrowers must secure their loans via Cap’s financial guarantee market