Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Somewhat expensive
- Risk
- Medium
- Technicals (daily)
- Bearish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Cardano
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 2
- Far below ATH, fundamentals growingImportant
−93.4% from the all-time high, but TVL/fees are rising.
- Fees risingRelevant
+216% vs. the previous month.
Risks 1
- Expensive among chainsMinor
P/F 4,468× – the market pays a high premium on fees.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 24 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Oct 01, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)35neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position11%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)6.8%typical daily move ±6.8%
- Mayer Multiple0.97in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple low for Bitcoin: no clear edge (16 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−93%high on Sep 01, 2021
- Max. drawdown 1 year−79%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−1.22worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.54 / 0.77swings more than Bitcoin, usually moves with it
- Volume trend+3%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- Fee growth 30 d+216%99 · 43 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)20.0%38 · 21 %
- TVL size$58.16M33 · 21 %
- Fee volume 30 d$141.76K16 · 14 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
83% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bearish (36/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Cardano · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
ADAUSDT
About Cardano
Cardano is a blockchain platform built on academic research that enables smart contracts and decentralized applications while using significantly less energy than traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. What sets Cardano apart is its methodical, research-driven approach — every major feature is peer-reviewed by scientists and cryptographers before being added to the network. This careful process aims to create a more secure and stable foundation compared to platforms that prioritize speed over thorough testing. The platform's native cryptocurrency, ADA, is used to send money, pay transaction fees, and participate in network governance. Cardano uses a proof-of-stake system to process transactions, which works differently from Bitcoin's mining approach. Instead of competing to solve complex puzzles, users can "stake" their ADA — essentially locking it up temporarily — to become validators who verify transactions. The system selects validators based on how much ADA they've staked and for how long, then rewards them with additional ADA for their participation. This approach uses far less energy than traditional mining while keeping the network secure. The platform also features a two-layer design that separates basic payment transactions from smart contract operations, allowing each function to be optimized independently for better performance. ADA holders can earn staking rewards by locking up their tokens to help secure the network, vote on proposed changes to the platform, and use ADA for international money transfers with lower fees than traditional services. Cardano was founded in 2017 by Charles Hoskinson, who previously helped create Ethereum. Hoskinson leads Input Output Global (IOG), the technology company that builds and maintains Cardano's core software. The ecosystem operates through three organizations: IOG handles technical development, the Cardano Foundation promotes adoption and standardization, and Emurgo helps businesses integrate blockchain technology into their operations. This structure distributes responsibilities across multiple groups rather than concentrating control in a single entity. In February 2025, major asset manager Grayscale Investments filed to create an exchange-traded fund (ETF) for Cardano with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which would allow traditional investors to buy ADA through their regular bro
Price target check for Cardano
What would Cardano need for these prices? With market cap needed, comparison and history.