Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Overvalued
- Risk
- Very high
- Technicals (daily)
- Bullish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Derive
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 2
- Intact uptrendRelevant
Price above SMA50, above SMA200.
- Trending on CoinGeckoMinor
Above-average attention – often short-lived.
Risks 0
No notable risks right now.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day lineHistorically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)46neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position26%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)5.0%typical daily move ±5.0%
- Mayer Multiple2.17in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple high for Bitcoin: too few signals (4 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−36%high on Oct 09, 2026
- Max. drawdown 1 year−46%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year1.95good (1 or more)
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin-0.16 / -0.03swings less than Bitcoin
- Volume trend+3%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL growth 30 d−6.4%72 · 30 %
- Fee growth 30 d−18.8%24 · 30 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)82.2%63 · 15 %
- TVL size$177.2M47 · 15 %
- Fee volume 30 d$511.87K40 · 10 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
67% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Uptrend · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bullish (63/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Derive · Options · DefiLlama
About Derive
Derive is a decentralized protocol that creates programmable onchain options, perpetuals, and structured products. Derive is deployed and operates on Derive Chain, an Ethereum rollup built using the OP stack and is the home of the Derive Protocol. It is a permission-less smart contract platform. The Derive DAO earns trading fees from the Derive Protocol and gas fees from the Derive Chain, governed by DRV token holders. Trading fees accrue to an insurance fund to foster robustness of the protocol and rollup. Derive has built an AI-powered trading app built for pro traders. In collaboration with Messari, Derive Pro translates market views into trades. The agent then prepares transactions for users and leverages smart contract wallets to make trades one-click, gasless and chainless. The app will support spot, perps and options trading on Derive, and will also plug in to spot AMMs on L2s like Optimism, Arbitrum and Base.