Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Somewhat expensive
- Risk
- Very high
- Technicals (daily)
- Bullish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Ethena
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 2
- Market value below TVLRelevant
MCap/TVL 0.56 – common for lending/staking, otherwise a sign of a low valuation.
- Intact uptrendRelevant
Price above SMA50, above SMA200.
Risks 2
- Expensive relative to revenueRelevant
P/S 3,104× – more expensive than 99% of the peer group.
- Leveraged bet on BitcoinMinor
Beta 1.9 – swings almost twice as much as BTC.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 58 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Aug 30, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)52neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDpositiveshort-term momentum stronger than recently
- Bollinger position63%upper half of the band
- ATR (14 days)9.8%typical daily move ±9.8%
- Mayer Multiple1.65in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple high for Bitcoin: too few signals (4 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−86%high on Apr 11, 2024
- Max. drawdown 1 year−84%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−0.31worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.87 / 0.55swings more than Bitcoin
- Volume trend+4%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL growth 30 d−7.2%67 · 30 %
- Fee growth 30 d−18.1%27 · 30 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)0.5%12 · 15 %
- TVL size$5.04B87 · 15 %
- Fee volume 30 d$16.44M82 · 10 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
Key figures
Market
Supply
89% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Uptrend · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bullish (95/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Ethena · Basis Trading · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
ENAUSDT
About Ethena
No description available.
Price target check for Ethena
What would Ethena need for these prices? With market cap needed, comparison and history.