Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Somewhat expensive
- Risk
- Low
- Technicals (daily)
- Neutral
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Ethereum
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 1
- Developer activity risingMinor
99 commits in 4 weeks (previously 63).
Risks 2
- One-sided long positioningRelevant
Long/short ratio 3.39 (accounts).
- Expensive among chainsMinor
P/F 1,537× – the market pays a high premium on fees.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 56 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
- Moves almost in lockstep with BTCMinor
Correlation 0.89 (90 d) – little independent movement.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Aug 31, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Ethereum: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)33neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Ethereum: no clear edge (18 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position2%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)3.9%typical daily move ±3.9%
- Mayer Multiple1.07in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple high for Ethereum: too few signals (2 signals) →
- 200-week line$2,548.44price −9% belowHistorically tested – Below the 200-week line for Ethereum: edge measured (10 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−53%high on Aug 24, 2025
- Max. drawdown 1 year−62%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−0.73worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.22 / 0.89swings more than Bitcoin, usually moves with it
- Volume trend−3%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- Fee growth 30 d+20.0%83 · 43 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)33.9%49 · 21 %
- TVL size$46.39B99 · 21 %
- Fee volume 30 d$15.32M79 · 14 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
- OpenAI Proves ETH Is False, and Crypto Twitter Has QuestionsDecrypt ·
- Ethereum fixes Glamsterdam bug that could have sent staking deposits to buildersCoinDesk ·
- Tom Lee's Bitmine favors share buybacks to ether purchases as crypto declinesCoinDesk ·
- Tom Lee's Bitmine Keeps Buying Ethereum But Pivots to Record Share BuybacksDecrypt ·
Key figures
Market
Supply
100% of total supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Neutral (56/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Ethereum · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
ETHUSDT
Development
ethereum/go-ethereum
About Ethereum
Ethereum is a global, open-source platform for decentralized applications. In other words, it is a decentralized blockchain platform that enables developers to build and deploy smart contracts and applications without central authority control. Unlike Bitcoin, which primarily functions as digital currency, Ethereum operates as a programmable global computer where developers can create any type of decentralized service. The platform hosts over $14 billion in DeFi applications with hundreds of thousands of active users across financial protocols, NFT marketplaces, and gaming platforms. Its transition to Proof of Stake in September 2022 reduced energy consumption by over 99%, addressing environmental concerns while strengthening network security. The network operates through thousands of independent validator nodes that process transactions and execute smart contracts on the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Smart contracts are self-executing programs written in Solidity that automatically carry out agreements when conditions are met, eliminating intermediaries like banks or brokers. Validators stake ETH as collateral to propose and validate blocks, earning rewards for honest participation while facing penalties for malicious behavior. The EIP-1559 upgrade introduced a dynamic base fee mechanism that burns ETH with each transaction, creating deflationary pressure during high network activity when more ETH is burned than issued to validators. Vitalik Buterin proposed Ethereum in 2013, but seven co-founders helped build it, including Gavin Wood who created Solidity and the EVM technical specification, and Joseph Lubin who founded ConsenSys. The project launched in July 2015 after raising over $18 million through crowdfunding, quickly becoming the largest blockchain developer community. Major milestones include the 2020 Beacon Chain launch, the 2021 London hard fork implementing fee burning, and the 2022 Merge to Proof of Stake. Ether (ETH) serves multiple functions: paying transaction fees (gas), staking to secure the network and earn 3-5% annual yields, serving as collateral in DeFi protocols, and purchasing NFTs and digital assets. The asset is increasingly adopted by traditional institutions, with publicly traded companies adding ETH to corporate treasuries to generate staking yields while maintaining blockchain exposure, and in 2024, the SEC approved spot Eth
Price target check for Ethereum
What would Ethereum need for these prices? With market cap needed, comparison and history.