Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Somewhat expensive
- Risk
- High
- Technicals (daily)
- Neutral
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Falcon Finance
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 4
- Far below ATH, fundamentals growingImportant
−87.4% from the all-time high, but TVL/fees are rising.
- Market value below TVLRelevant
MCap/TVL 0.19 – common for lending/staking, otherwise a sign of a low valuation.
- TVL growing stronglyRelevant
+42.3% in 30 days.
- Many shorts in the marketMinor
Long/short ratio 0.53 – a short squeeze is possible.
Risks 2
- Dilution riskRelevant
FDV = 3.0× MCap – only 33% of the supply is circulating. Future token unlocks weigh on the price.
- Expensive relative to feesMinor
P/F 133× – more expensive than 87% of the peer group.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 50 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Sep 07, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)38neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position9%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)7.6%typical daily move ±7.6%
- Mayer Multiple1.13in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple high for Bitcoin: too few signals (4 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−87%high on Sep 29, 2025
- Max. drawdown 1 year−62%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−0.06worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin-0.17 / -0.06swings less than Bitcoin
- Volume trend−47%trading is decreasing
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL growth 30 d+42.3%93 · 30 %
- Fee growth 30 d−24.9%20 · 30 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)0.0%5 · 15 %
- TVL size$1.72B79 · 15 %
- Fee volume 30 d$200.46K20 · 10 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
33% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Neutral (56/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Falcon Finance · Basis Trading · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
FFUSDT
About Falcon Finance
Falcon Finance is pioneering the first universal collateralization infrastructure, designed to transform how liquidity and yield are created onchain. The protocol accepts liquid assets, including digital tokens and tokenized real world assets, to be deposited as collateral for issuing USDf, an overcollateralized synthetic dollar. USDf provides users with stable and accessible onchain liquidity without requiring the liquidation of their holdings. To complement this, users can stake USDf to mint sUSDf, a yield-bearing token that is powered by diversified institutional-grade trading strategies. These strategies extend beyond traditional basis spread arbitrage and are designed to deliver performance across all market conditions. By bridging the gap between traditional finance and decentralized finance, Falcon Finance offers institutions, protocols, and individuals a transparent and secure way to unlock the full potential of their assets. The platform combines innovation, yield generation, and robust risk management into a scalable infrastructure that redefines how collateral, liquidity, and asset ownership interact across financial domains. $FF is the native token that captures the growth of Falcon Finance. As more assets are deposited and USDf adoption expands, $FF becomes the core asset tied to the protocol’s scale and success. Falcon is building infrastructure designed for trillions in assets. $FF is the way to get exposure to that future.