Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Fair
- Risk
- High
- Technicals (daily)
- Neutral
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Filecoin
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 2
- Far below ATH, fundamentals growingImportant
−99.6% from the all-time high, but TVL/fees are rising.
- Fees risingRelevant
+44.1% vs. the previous month.
Risks 1
- Dilution riskRelevant
FDV = 2.3× MCap – only 43% of the supply is circulating. Future token unlocks weigh on the price.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 23 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
- Near the 52-week lowRelevant
Price in the bottom tenth of its yearly range – a floor or more selling?
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Oct 04, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)39neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position9%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)9.8%typical daily move ±9.8%
- Mayer Multiple1.04in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple high for Bitcoin: too few signals (4 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−100%high on Apr 01, 2021
- Max. drawdown 1 year−81%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year0.02moderate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.23 / 0.47swings more than Bitcoin
- Volume trend+18%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- Fee growth 30 d+44.1%92 · 55 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)100%89 · 27 %
- Fee volume 30 d$112.04K10 · 18 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
43% of total supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Neutral (56/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Filecoin · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
FILUSDT
Development
filecoin-project/lotus
About Filecoin
The Filecoin network achieves staggering economies of scale by allowing anyone worldwide to participate as storage providers. It also makes storage resemble a commodity or utility by decoupling hard-drive space from additional services. On this robust global market the price of storage will be driven by supply and demand, not corporate pricing departments, and miners will compete on factors like reputation for reliability as well as price.