Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Undervalued
- Risk
- Medium
- Technicals (daily)
- Bearish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Plasma
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 0
No notable opportunities right now.
Risks 3
- Falling knifeImportant
−30.5% in 30 days, trend still pointing down.
- Dilution riskRelevant
FDV = 2.1× MCap – only 48% of the supply is circulating. Future token unlocks weigh on the price.
- Intact downtrendRelevant
Price below SMA50, below SMA200.
Notes
- Near the 52-week lowRelevant
Price in the bottom tenth of its yearly range – a floor or more selling?
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesDeath cross50-day line below the 200-day lineHistorically tested – Death cross for Bitcoin: no clear edge (9 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)38neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position18%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)8.8%typical daily move ±8.8%
- Mayer Multiple0.82in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple low for Bitcoin: no clear edge (16 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−96%high on Sep 27, 2025
- Max. drawdown 1 year−83%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−0.61worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.67 / 0.63swings more than Bitcoin
- Volume trend−58%trading is decreasing
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL size$541.68M60 · 100 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
48% of total supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Downtrend · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bearish (13/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Plasma · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
XPLUSDT
About Plasma
Plasma is the layer 1 blockchain building the stablecoin infrastructure for a new global financial system. It is purpose-built for global stablecoin payments, offering zero-fee USD₮ transfers and custom gas tokens to help realise the stablecoin promise of permissionless access to financial services for everyone, everywhere. Plasma’s global payments coverage and inbound suite of products position it as the native chain for stablecoin payments.