Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Overvalued
- Risk
- Very high
- Technicals (daily)
- Bearish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Rain
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 0
No notable opportunities right now.
Risks 4
- Falling knifeImportant
−42.8% in 30 days, trend still pointing down.
- Capital flowing outRelevant
TVL −43.6% in 30 days.
- Low liquidityRelevant
Daily volume only 0.32% of market cap.
- Intact downtrendRelevant
Price below SMA50, below SMA200.
Notes
- Oversold (daily RSI)Relevant
RSI(14) 30 – considered oversold. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
- Death crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed below the SMA200 3 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
- Far below the 200-day averageMinor
Mayer Multiple 0.59 – considered a cheap zone. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesDeath cross50-day line below the 200-day line since Oct 25, 2026Historically tested – Death cross for Bitcoin: no clear edge (9 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)30oversoldHistorically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position−3%below the lower band
- ATR (14 days)6.6%typical daily move ±6.6%
- Mayer Multiple0.59low (below 0.8)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple low for Bitcoin: no clear edge (16 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−63%high on Aug 25, 2026
- Max. drawdown 1 year−60%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year1.06good (1 or more)
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin0.27 / 0.10swings less than Bitcoin
- Volume trend−33%trading is decreasing
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL growth 30 d−43.6%4 · 67 %
- TVL size$12.82M10 · 33 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
62% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Downtrend · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bearish (15/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Rain · Prediction Market · DefiLlama
About Rain
Rain is a decentralized options protocol built on Arbitrum. It enables anyone to create and trade custom markets without restrictions, offering a permissionless framework for prediction and options trading. Public markets are resolved using Olympus AI’s oracle agent, while private markets allow creators to act as resolvers. The protocol supports secondary trading, account abstraction for smoother user experience, and a deflationary token model where 2.5% of trading volume is allocated to buy and burn the $RAIN token. Governance of the protocol is carried out by token holders through a DAO.
Price target check for Rain
What would Rain need for these prices? With market cap needed, comparison and history.