Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Overvalued
- Risk
- Medium
- Technicals (daily)
- Neutral
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Stable
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 0
No notable opportunities right now.
Risks 2
- Dilution riskImportant
FDV = 5.6× MCap – only 18% of the supply is circulating. Future token unlocks weigh on the price.
- Open interest rising as price fallsRelevant
OI +65% in 30 d – new shorts are building pressure.
Notes
- Death crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed below the SMA200 51 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesDeath cross50-day line below the 200-day line since Sep 07, 2026Historically tested – Death cross for Bitcoin: no clear edge (9 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)54neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDpositiveshort-term momentum stronger than recently
- Bollinger position77%upper half of the band
- ATR (14 days)2.4%typical daily move ±2.4%
- Mayer Multiple0.86in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple low for Bitcoin: no clear edge (16 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−37%high on May 14, 2026
- Max. drawdown 1 year−65%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year0.57moderate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin-0.14 / -0.08swings less than Bitcoin
- Volume trend−3%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- TVL size$27.93M19 · 100 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
News
No recent articles on CoinDesk, Cointelegraph or Decrypt.
Key figures
Market
Supply
18% of max supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Neutral (44/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Stable · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
STABLEUSDT
About Stable
No description available.