Kairos assessment
relative to the top 250 · not a recommendation- Valuation
- Overvalued
- Risk
- Medium
- Technicals (daily)
- Bearish
- Macro
- Headwind
AI analysis: Stellar
Valuation, bull & bear case, technicals, macro and triggers – from all live data
Opportunities & risks
Detected automatically from valuation, on-chain data, technicals, derivatives, development and news.
Opportunities 0
No notable opportunities right now.
Risks 1
- Expensive among chainsMinor
P/F 11,221× – the market pays a high premium on fees.
Notes
- Golden crossRelevant
The SMA50 crossed above the SMA200 37 days ago. Whether this signal has had an edge so far is shown in the Indicator Check.
Well-known indicators
From daily candles · each row with context – whether a signal has helped so far is shown in the Indicator Check
- 50- and 200-day linesGolden cross50-day line above the 200-day line since Sep 20, 2026Historically tested – Golden cross for Bitcoin: tendency, not confirmed (8 signals) →
- RSI (14 days)35neutral (30–70)Historically tested – RSI oversold for Bitcoin: no clear edge (21 signals) →
- MACDnegativeshort-term momentum weaker than recently
- Bollinger position19%lower half of the band
- ATR (14 days)5.1%typical daily move ±5.1%
- Mayer Multiple0.93in the usual range (0.8–2.4)Historically tested – Mayer Multiple low for Bitcoin: no clear edge (16 signals) →
- Distance to all-time high−81%high on Jan 02, 2018
- Max. drawdown 1 year−55%largest drop from a high in 12 months
- Sharpe ratio 1 year−0.50worse than the risk-free rate
- Beta / correlation to Bitcoin1.33 / 0.74swings more than Bitcoin, usually moves with it
- Volume trend−4%roughly the same
Why this assessment?
Every value is built from factors – value, percentile (0–100) and weight. Everything is relative to the top 250: a model-based assessment, not a recommendation. What actually works: Track Record
- Fee growth 30 d+0.5%54 · 43 %
- Value capture (revenue/fees)100%89 · 21 %
- TVL size$231.04M53 · 21 %
- Fee volume 30 d$43.83K3 · 14 %
The Growth Score is the fundamentals pillar – unchanged in a live test since 29 Sep 2026. In the backtest it was the only pillar positively linked to later performance. We picked it after looking at the data, so it is a hypothesis, not a forecast.
Key figures
Market
Supply
70% of total supply circulating
All-time high & low
Price range and trend
Sideways · points verdict from trend, RSI, MACD and crosses: Bearish (36/100)
Fundamentals (on-chain)
Stellar · Chain · DefiLlama
Derivatives (Binance perps)
XLMUSDT
Development
stellar/stellar-core
About Stellar
Stellar is an open-source, decentralized network co-founded in 2014 by Jed McCaleb and Joyce Kim to facilitate the fast and low-cost transfer of value across different currencies and assets globally. Managed by the non-profit Stellar Development Foundation, the project serves as a global infrastructure that connects banks, payment systems, and individuals to expand financial access to underserved populations. Its main value proposition lies in providing a bridge between traditional money and digital networks through the use of Anchors, which are trusted entities that hold deposits and issue credits on the ledger. The network operates using the Stellar Consensus Protocol and a Federated Byzantine Agreement, where nodes choose trusted sets of other nodes to agree on the state of the ledger. This system ensures high throughput and fast finality, where transactions are considered permanent and irreversible within seconds. Key features include a built-in distributed exchange for trading assets without intermediaries and the Soroban platform for developing smart contracts. Users can also utilize the network for tokenizing real-world assets or accessing decentralized finance services like peer-to-peer lending. Stellar's native token, XLM, is essential for maintaining network integrity by acting as an intermediary to find efficient exchange paths and preventing spam through small transaction fees and minimum account balance requirements. Unlike many other digital assets, the network has no inflation because the community voted to disable the automatic creation of new tokens. While the project received early funding from the payments company Stripe, it is now sustained by a global community of validators and developers rather than traditional venture capital.
Price target check for Stellar
What would Stellar need for these prices? With market cap needed, comparison and history.